One of my favorite political websites, Electoral Vote, has been ramping up for the (still relatively distant) presidential election.
In the latest issue, they sum up an article from the NY Times that predicts that Marco Rubio will be the Republican nominee for president. First of all, they point out that exactly five years ago, Ross Douthat predicted that Mitt Romney would be the Republican nominee. It was a bold prediction back then, but it was right. Of course, past luck doesn’t always guarantee future success, but it makes a good headline.
More interesting is Douthat’s reasons for predicting Marco Rubio will win the nomination. Regular readers may recall that over a month ago I predicted that Rubio would win the Republican nomination. But Douthat gives actual reasons why Rubio will get the nod, and it is intereating. Rubio will win because of process of elimination – every other candidate has a fatal flaw.
Donald Trump. No party has ever nominated a weirdo like him
Ben Carson. See Trump
Carly Fiorina. She is running for a cabinet position
Jeb Bush. He’s flailing in all directions and only the super-rich like him
John Kasich. He is too moderate and too ornery about it
Chris Christie. Too many cones
Ted Cruz. The party leaders despise him
Bobby Jindal. Carson and Cruz suck up his oxygen
Mike Huckabee. See Jindal
Rick Santorum. The voters are not the slightest bit interested
Lindsey Graham. See Santorum
George Pataki. See Graham
So Marco Rubio is the only man left standing. Douthat says that Rubio is close to the ideological center of the Republican Party, comes from a key swing state, is a good debater, has an impressive biography and personal style, and most important, nobody hates him.
I agree. If anyone can come up with a counter-argument for why somebody else will win, I’d love to hear it.