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Fool me again, shame on me

New York magazine just published an interesting article titled “Trump’s State-by-State Approval Ratings Should Scare the MAGA Out of Him“. The article points out that current polls show that Donald Trump’s job-approval ratings are negative in ten states that he won in 2016, by 9 to 12 points.

The article then makes what appears to be a reasonable assumption, that Trump will only win the states where he has a positive approval rating. Which means he will win 119 electoral votes (and lose 419 electoral votes). That is an incredible landslide for whomever runs against him.

There’s just one big problem with this. Polls make lots of assumptions about who will actually vote. These assumptions could well be wrong. Furthermore, if enough people read articles like this one and conclude that Trump is toast, they may not bother to go vote against him.

Like what happened last time, when all the polls showed that Hilary Clinton was going to win. Don’t be fooled again.

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One Comment

  1. ebdoug wrote:

    Again back to the electoral vote. I’m surrounded by Trumpsters who WILL go to the polls and vote. In my voting district of ignorance, Trump will win. Those are all people whose vote for Trump doesn’t count one bit so can be subtracted from the overall poll amount. Trump is not going to get the New York vote. Just the rural vote. Had he run against Bush in 2004 as he was trying to do, he would have run on the Democratic ticket. He then would have had a chance in New York State.

    Thursday, August 15, 2019 at 5:48 am | Permalink

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