Donald Trump promises that he will repeal Obamacare (as the Republicans have been trying to do for a while) and replace it with a new tax deduction, certain changes to insurance markets including allowing health insurance to be sold across state lines, and converting Medicaid into a federal block grant to the states.
But a new study sponsored by the non-partisan Commonwealth Fund and carried out by the Rand Corporation concludes that Donald Trump’s replacements for Obamacare (like the tax deduction) will only help the rich, and will cause 20.2 million people to lose their health insurance. That reverses the gains made by Obamacare.
Even worse, the number of uninsured people whose health is fair or poor would triple under Trump. Generally, these people end up going to emergency rooms, the cost of which is passed on to other people in the form of higher health costs and consequently higher insurance premiums. That means that health insurance costs will rise even more under Trump’s plan.
The Associated Press had a prominent Republican expert on health care evaluate the study’s results, and he said that the overall conclusions seemed to be on target.
The same study also looked at Hillary Clinton’s proposals, which include a new tax credit for deductibles and copayments not covered by insurance, increased subsidies for people who cannot afford health insurance, and (most importantly) a “public option” health plan. The study concluded that Clinton’s plan would increase the number of people with health insurance by 9.1 million.
So do Trump’s plans save any money? Nope. Another recent non-partisan study concluded that Trump’s proposals would increase the federal debt by $5.3 trillion over the next decade. Clinton’s proposals also increase the federal debt, but by $200 billion (only 3.8% as much as Trump’s proposals).
So with Trump you get less and it costs more. And of course Trump ends up with more campaign contributions from the health insurance industry. He wins, you lose.