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McCain guarantees that he will win

Today on “Meet the Press”, McCain said that he can “guarantee” a squeaker victory on election day that won’t be clear until late that night. McCain told moderator Tom Brokaw:

I guarantee you that two weeks from now, you will see this has been a very close race, and I believe that I’m going to win it. We’re going to do well in this campaign, my friend. We’re going to win it, and it’s going to be tight, and we’re going to be up late.

Ironically, almost everyone else disagrees. The polling experts at FiveThirtyEight give McCain a mere 3.3% chance of winning, predicting Obama will prevail with 351 electoral votes (the winner needs 270). The Electoral Vote site predicts Obama will win 375 electoral votes. In the popular vote, Real Clear Politics has Obama up by 7.6%. Even the money is on Obama, with the betting site InTrade giving it to Obama with 87.9% (versus McCain at 12.5%).

Does McCain know something nobody else does, or is it too late for an October surprise?

UPDATE: of course, they can just steal the election.



  1. Fractal wrote:

    If they’re stealing, then who knows what is possible.

    Sunday, October 26, 2008 at 6:01 pm | Permalink
  2. Kevin wrote:

    Well there are a bunch of Diebold machines out there still, maybe he’s counting on them. đŸ˜›

    Sunday, October 26, 2008 at 7:36 pm | Permalink
  3. Bill wrote:

    Maybe he personally caught Bin Laden and is keeping him tied up at McCain headquarters.

    Sunday, October 26, 2008 at 10:35 pm | Permalink
  4. Jennifer wrote:

    All we’re going on is the polls, and while polling may historically be accurate, polls aren’t votes so let’s not get cocky. All of these “Obama has it in the bag” stories may just fuel the undecideds to go for the underdog. I’d rather the Obama camp stayed vigilant rather than pointing to these polls stories over and over and over. Same with this site.

    Monday, October 27, 2008 at 10:28 am | Permalink
  5. Iron Knee wrote:

    Jennifer’s point is well taken. Democrats have shown before that they can snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, and Electoral Vote was showing a big victory for Kerry on Nov 1, 2004. Plus, there is always the Diebold factor. Not to mention ongoing voter purging and caging efforts.

    It ain’t over until the fat lady sings! Get out there and vote!

    Monday, October 27, 2008 at 10:59 am | Permalink