Many of us complain about the media, but we rarely get solid numerical proof that something is wrong. But a study published earlier this month evaluated the accuracy of predictions made by political pundits. Their results? Most pundits were no better at predicting things than tossing a coin. Interestingly, liberal pundits were more accurate than conservative pundits, and this was true even if you didn’t count predictions about national elections. The most accurate pundit was liberal Paul Krugman (who also won the Nobel prize in economics). This is really fascinating: Pundits with law degrees were more likely to be wrong. They also found that pundits were bad at predicting things regardless of the subject — be it politics, health care, or the economy, they were just as bad at predicting the future.
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