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The Debt Will Jump Under Trump

Will Republicans start accusing the Wall Street Journal (owned by the same people who own Fox News) of having a liberal bias? It wouldn’t surprise me after they published an article titled “Study Sees Debt Jumping Under Trump, Staying Steady Under Clinton“.

This is not just the WSJ’s opinion. Several studies have analyzed the tax and spending proposals from both major (presumed) candidates, and come to the same conclusion.

The most recent study is from the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (who promotes bringing down the national debt). They estimate that under current laws, the national debt will grow to 86% of the entire US economy (mainly driven by an aging population that will increase spending on Social Security and Medicare). So 86% is our baseline.

Under the economic plan put forward by Donald Trump, the US debt will grow to 127% of the entire economy, a stunning increase of $11.5 trillion to the national debt.

On the other hand, Clinton’s plan is estimated to increase the debt to 87% of the US economy (1% more than the baseline, which is within the margin of error for the study).

Other studies, from the Tax Policy Center, and the Tax Foundation, have similar results. They estimate that Trump’s tax changes would reduce government revenues by $9.5 trillion and $10 trillion, respectively.

And of course, there is the analysis from Moody’s Analytics a week ago that found that Trump could plunge the US economy into a prolonged recession with heavy job losses because his policies on immigration and trade would dramatically increase the cost of goods and labor. But that’s only if Trump isn’t lying and really does do what he repeatedly promises to do (although as we have seen with Brexit, even the threat of doing something really stupid was enough to severely damage the economy of the UK).

The bottom line is that Trump is likely to be far worse for our economy than Brexit was for the UK’s. But there may be a silver lining, as Trump could make more money on his golf courses in the US.


One Comment

  1. Peter wrote:

    But wait! Isn’t Donald Trump the king of debt? He’ll just promise everything and then refuse to pay!

    Tuesday, June 28, 2016 at 11:48 am | Permalink