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Are We Being Played?

From Heather Richardson, professor of History at Boston College (as posted to Facebook, and verified by Snopes):

I don’t like to talk about politics on Facebook — political history is my job, after all, and you are my friends — but there is an important non-partisan point to make today.

What Bannon is doing, most dramatically with last night’s ban on immigration from seven predominantly Muslim countries — is creating what is known as a “shock event.”

Such an event is unexpected and confusing and throws a society into chaos. People scramble to react to the event, usually along some fault line that those responsible for the event can widen by claiming that they alone know how to restore order.

When opponents speak out, the authors of the shock event call them enemies. As society reels and tempers run high, those responsible for the shock event perform a sleight of hand to achieve their real goal, a goal they know to be hugely unpopular, but from which everyone has been distracted as they fight over the initial event. There is no longer concerted opposition to the real goal; opposition divides along the partisan lines established by the shock event.

Last night’s Executive Order has all the hallmarks of a shock event. It was not reviewed by any governmental agencies or lawyers before it was released, and counterterrorism experts insist they did not ask for it. People charged with enforcing it got no instructions about how to do so. Courts immediately have declared parts of it unconstitutional, but border police in some airports are refusing to stop enforcing it.

Predictably, chaos has followed and tempers are hot.

My point today is this: unless you are the person setting it up, it is in no one’s interest to play the shock event game. It is designed explicitly to divide people who might otherwise come together so they cannot stand against something its authors think they won’t like.

I don’t know what Bannon is up to– although I have some guesses– but because I know Bannon’s ideas well, I am positive that there is not a single person whom I consider a friend on either side of the aisle– and my friends range pretty widely– who will benefit from whatever it is.

If the shock event strategy works, though, many of you will blame each other, rather than Bannon, for the fallout. And the country will have been tricked into accepting their real goal.

But because shock events destabilize a society, they can also be used positively. We do not have to respond along old fault lines. We could just as easily reorganize into a different pattern that threatens the people who sparked the event.

A successful shock event depends on speed and chaos because it requires knee-jerk reactions so that people divide along established lines. This, for example, is how Confederate leaders railroaded the initial southern states out of the Union.

If people realize they are being played, though, they can reach across old lines and reorganize to challenge the leaders who are pulling the strings. This was Lincoln’s strategy when he joined together Whigs, Democrats, Free-Soilers, anti-Nebraska voters, and nativists into the new Republican Party to stand against the Slave Power.

Five years before, such a coalition would have been unimaginable. Members of those groups agreed on very little other than that they wanted all Americans to have equal economic opportunity. Once they began to work together to promote a fair economic system, though, they found much common ground. They ended up rededicating the nation to a “government of the people, by the people, and for the people.

Confederate leaders and Lincoln both knew about the political potential of a shock event. As we are in the midst of one, it seems worth noting that Lincoln seemed to have the better idea about how to use it.

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Spite Your Face?


© Matt Bors

Maybe Trump supporters are angry, whipped up into a frenzy by conservatives that it doesn’t even matter what they have to be angry about. But they are so angry, that they will do anything to piss off their perceived enemies, even if it goes strongly against their own interests.

In a situation like that, compromise is futile.

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Pissing off the World

Besides Russia, is there any country that Donald Trump has not managed to piss off?

Let’s start with Russia. The only active war in Europe today just erupted again, with Russian fingerprints all over it:

After two years of cease-fire that was observed on a fairly consistent basis by both sides, fighting between Ukrainian forces and pro-Russian separatists has recommenced, with more than a dozen people dead. It’s too early to say with certainty what it all means, but observers note that the separatists appear to have had logistical support from Moscow, and that this could very well be a test to see how the Trump administration responds.

So Donald Trump emboldens Russia, and they start causing trouble. This is a very bad sign.

And Russia isn’t the only country that is testing Trump. Iran just conducted a missile test, and Iranian-backed rebels conducted an attack on a Saudi naval vessel in the Red Sea. On Wednesday, the Trump administration announced “As of today, we are officially putting Iran on notice.” Just what does that mean? Then of course, they blamed everything on the Obama administration.

And in two personal phone calls in one day, Trump managed to antagonize both the prime minister of Australia and the president of Mexico.

What makes this scary is that Australia is a critical ally of the US as China tries to annex islands in the South China Sea. Indeed, Trump’s chief strategist Steve Bannon has said that “There’s no doubt” that the US will go to war with China in five to ten years.

So what was important enough to cause Trump to threaten our relationship with Australia? An agreement between the US and Australia where Australia would accept refugees from El Salvador, Honduras, and Guatemala. In return, the US would resettle 1,250 refugees from Iraq, Iran, and Afghanistan, but as even Trump’s press secretary points out, only after “extreme vetting” is applied to each one. But in yet another tweet, Trump called it a “dumb deal”.

Meanwhile, on another phone call, German Chancellor Angela Merkel had to explain to Trump the Geneva Convention, which requires the US to accept refugees from war-torn nations. Trump is violating the convention by ordering a halt of refugees entering the US. French President Francois Hollande and British Prime Minister Theresa May also chastised Trump for the Muslim refugee ban.

Things have gotten so bad that the president of the European Union declared the Trump administration a “threat”, alongside China, Russia, terrorism, and radical Islam.

Trump’s bullying is not going over well with the rest of the world. What will Trump do in response? Threaten to bomb our allies?

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Late Night Political Humor

[Jokes from Jan. 9, 2017]

“Meryl Streep’s speech last night at the Golden Globes took direct aim at Donald Trump when she called him a bully. Of course, Trump responded in a tweet saying Streep is quote one of the most overrated actresses in Hollywood.” – James Corden

“At last night’s Golden Globes, Meryl Streep criticized Donald Trump, then Trump tweeted that she is ‘overrated’. ‘Overrated’ is different from Trump’s normal insult for women, ‘over 40’.” – Conan O’Brien

“Meryl Streep was given the Cecil B DeMille lifetime achievement award at the Golden Globes last night and used her acceptance speech to criticize Donald Trump. That’s right, the all-time queen of American drama was criticized by Meryl Streep.” – Seth Meyers

“Look, Mr. Trump. You can refuse to release your taxes, you can call to ban an entire religion, you can play footsie with a dictator, but calling Meryl Streep overrated? No!” – Stephen Colbert

“If you want to see real acting, just watch the Republican Congress as they pretend that everything’s going to be okay for the next four years.” – James Corden

“In a tense exchange yesterday, a U.S. Navy destroyer fired warning shots at fast-approaching Iranian naval ships. So of course, our president-elect tweeted about how overrated Meryl Streep is.” – James Corden

“Last night, President-elect Trump was too focused on defeating ISIS and creating jobs to pick a fight with a celebrity — just kidding, he tweeted: ‘Meryl Streep, one of the most over-rated actresses in Hollywood…'” – Stephen Colbert

“Trump spokeswoman and future award-winning Meryl Streep role Kellyanne Conway weighed in on the reporter controversy by explaining we shouldn’t get hung up on little things like what Donald Trump says and does.” – Stephen Colbert

“Donald Trump is reportedly having multiple disagreements with his Defense Secretary pick, James ‘Mad Dog’ Mattis. You know you’re in trouble when a guy named Mad Dog is telling you to take it down a notch.” – Conan O’Brien

“Donald Trump is making his son-in-law Jared Kushner a senior adviser to the Presidency. Today, Trump said, ‘I’ve looked into it and nothing’s ever gone wrong with a guy named Jared.'” – Conan O’Brien

“A man is claiming that his struggle with sleep-apnea caused him to grope a woman’s breasts on a flight. Said the woman, ‘Nice try, Mr. President-elect.'” – Seth Meyers

“On Friday, the director of national intelligence released a report that found that Putin ordered the effort to undermine faith in the election and help Trump. Apparently, after Russia was embarrassed by the Olympic doping scandal, Putin wanted to discredit the image of the United States and cast it as hypocritical. Hey, Putin, we don’t need any help looking hypocritical. Okay? We’re the country that invented both chili cheese fries and open heart surgery. We got this one.” – Stephen Colbert

“Over the weekend, Pope Francis gave his support to a woman who was publicly breastfeeding. The Pope defended himself saying, ‘I’m celibate, this is all I have.'” – Conan O’Brien

“The movie ‘La La Land’ won a record seven Golden Globes last night. The movie tells the story of a struggling jazz musician named Sebastian, who against all odds, is white.” – Seth Meyers

“First Lady Michelle Obama gave her final White House speech on Friday where she told young people to quote, ‘never fear’. Though it was weird that she told old people to quote, ‘Watch your backs’.” – Seth Meyers

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Supreme Fight

Kurt Eichenwald has a good article in Newsweek about Trump’s Supreme Court nominee entitled “Neil Gorsuch is Supremely Qualified, and Must Not Be Confirmed“. The whole article is worth a read, but I can sum up his main point in one paragraph.

The Republicans, in refusing to even hold hearings on Obama’s nominee Merrick Garland, are attempting to destroy the Supreme Court’s constitutional role as an independent judiciary. Even worse, when Republicans thought that Clinton was going to be the next president, conservatives talked about blocking any judicial nominee she would nominate. If they get away with this, you can kiss an independent Supreme Court goodbye. Instead, the Supreme Court justices would be no better than Senators for life. If a Republican Senate is only willing to consider a nominee because of politics, then the Supreme court becomes just just another arm of the Republican party, and our democracy dies.

It doesn’t matter if Gorsuch is qualified. Why? Because Garland is every bit as qualified. It is the constitutional obligation of the Senate to “advise and consent”, Not play politics.

I think Eichenwald has a very good point. As much as I hate obstructionism, I think this is important enough to warrant it.

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Colbert Comes Out Swinging

The first episode of The Late Show since Trump became president:

I haven’t found an embeddable video of this yet, but if you want to see Jon Stewart appearing on the show and reading Trump’s next batch of executive orders, click here.

UPDATE: Here’s the video of Jon Stewart with Stephen Colbert on the late show:

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Late Night Political Humor

[Jokes from Jan. 4, 2017]

“We’re a little over two weeks from Trump’s inauguration. Typically, you’ve got a bunch of stars there at the inauguration to perform for the new president. Reagan had Frank Sinatra, Clinton had Fleetwood Mac, George W. Bush had Ricky Martin, Obama had Beyonce. So, obviously, for Trump, everybody who’s anybody is going to be there, except for anybody. Because he’s having a wee bit of trouble getting famous acts to perform.” – Stephen Colbert

“Turns out the Mormon tabernacle choir is scheduled to perform, but over the weekend, a choir member resigned because she didn’t want to perform for Trump. Now the choir needs to fill that empty spot with a Mormon who has free time and can sing — Trump has a job for Mitt Romney after all!” – Stephen Colbert

“Bill and Hillary Clinton will attend Trump’s inauguration. I think that’s very nice that she’s being a gracious loser. And if you count the popular vote, a gracious winner.” – Stephen Colbert

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Be Careful What You Ask For

Monday night, Donald Trump fired the interim attorney general, Sally Yates, because she expressed her (legal) opinion that Trump’s Muslim ban should not be enforced because it was not legal. And she had some pretty good reasons to believe Trump’s executive order was not legal, as since the order was signed on Friday, five federal judges have issued injunctions against it.

In firing Yates, the White House issued a fairly nasty statement, saying that Yates had betrayed the Department of Justice. The statement also claimed that Trump’s executive order was approved as legal by the Justice Department’s Office of Legal Counsel. But given that Trump consulted virtually nobody before issuing the order, I find this hard to believe.

Yates is an Obama appointee, who was serving until Trump’s nominee, Jeff Sessions, could be confirmed by the Republican controlled Senate.

Now here’s the ironic part. Back in 2015 when Yates was being confirmed as Deputy Attorney General for Obama, Sessions pointedly asked her if she would be willing to do (presumably to Obama) exactly what she just did to Trump. And she agreed with him and said yes.

Sessions seems to be singing a different tune now.

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Trump’s View of the World


© Ruben Bolling

Donald Trump’s approval numbers continue to drop (eight points in the last week alone). And so far we are seeing massive protests against him every weekend. How long before this really is his view from Trump Tower?

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Losing!

What strikes me the most about Donald Trump’s recent executive orders (EOs) is how badly implemented they are. For example, Trump’s ban on Muslims — definitely illegal (already stayed by four separate federal judges) and almost certainly unconstitutional. And mass confusion with even members of the Trump administration contradicting each other on what the EO meant.

Many other EOs have been walked back, like his hiring freeze — taken back after veteran’s groups erupted in anger that the VA hospitals were not allowed to hire the additional doctors they were promised. The remaining EOs seem to be things that are meaningless, like saying we are going to increase funding for our military when only Congress can do that, or ordering a plan to defeat ISIS (like, what does he think the military has been doing?).

Even Republicans recognize how clumsy Trump has been. Senator Rob Portman (R-OH) said “You have an extreme vetting proposal that didn’t get the vetting it should have.”

After a federal judge issued a stay on Trump’s Muslim ban and even said that the ACLU’s lawsuit against it had a “strong likelihood of success”, the ACLU put it more bluntly, saying “I hope Trump enjoys losing. He’s going to lose so much we’re going to get sick and tired of his losing.

It is almost as if Trump just wants to make a big show for his most rabid supporters and either doesn’t care when these orders fail or turn out to be meaningless.

But it isn’t just Trump who is losing. What’s really sad is that while putting on a big show, he doesn’t care how many lives he destroys (like the Iraqi man who worked as an interpreter for the US Army, who was detained at JFK airport, until a Democratic congressman intervened to free him). Or the students who won’t be able to attend classes. Or the families torn apart.

He also doesn’t care that the terrorists are already using Trump’s anti-Muslim rhetoric as a recruiting tool. Or that Trump’s actions will actually hurt our efforts to fight terrorism. According to two Republican senators, “Ultimately, we fear this executive order will become a self-inflicted wound in the fight against terrorism.”

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This Week in Alternative Facts

NPR has started a new feature called “This Week in Trump’s ‘Alternative Facts’“. It is basically another fact-checking service, but more real time, and focusing on things that Trump and his close aides and advisors say.

This week’s lies include:

  • Trump’s claims that 3 to 5 million illegal votes were cast in the presidential election (“This is not true, no matter now many times Trump and his surrogates repeat it.”),
  • Trump’s claim that his election victory was “one of the great victories ever” (it ranked 46th out of 58 presidential elections, close to the bottom),
  • Trump’s press secretary’s claim that Trump won the most electoral votes of any Republican since Reagan (George H.W. Bush got more in 1988),
  • Trump’s claim that his speech to the CIA was “one standing ovation, the whole thing.” (“Trump never told the CIA officers to sit at the beginning of his speech, and it is standard protocol without a directive from the president, they wouldn’t have sat down”.),
  • Trump’s claim that his inauguration crowd had “the largest audience in the history of inaugurations.” (all available evidence shows that it was not even close),
  • Trump’s claim that it is far easier for a Muslim from Syria to get into the US that for a Christian from Syria (yes, more Muslims than Christians were admitted from Syria, but Christians make up only 5% of the population of that country),
  • Trump’s claims that during Obama’s recent speech in Chicago, two people were shot and killed in Chicago (completely made up — not only did nobody die from a shooting, nobody was even shot during Obama’s speech),
  • Trump’s press secretary’s claims that “buy America and hire America is at the core of the president’s plan” (Trump companies — including his daughter Ivanka’s clothing line and pieces sold at his clubs — are made overseas),
  • Trump’s press secretary’s claim that there has been a “dramatic expansion of the federal workforce in recent years.” (the federal workforce has largely remained steady, and the only thing that could possibly be called a dramatic increase happened in April 2010, when the government hired temporary census workers like it does every 10 years).

My only question is, when is Trump going to sign an executive order abolishing NPR?

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Late Night Political Humor

[Jokes from Jan. 3, 2017]

On New Year’s Eve Trump tweeted: “Happy new year to all, including to my many enemies and those who have fought me and lost so badly they just don’t know what to do. Love!” Enemies? The only people who admit to having “Enemies” are Donald Trump and 8th grade girls. – James Corden

He yells at his enemies, then ends the tweet with the word “Love!” That’s like getting a letter from your landlord that says, “I’m increasing the cost of your rent! Generosity!” – James Corden

Yesterday Donald Trump tweeted at North Korea after they announced plans to test an intercontinental nuclear weapon. Trump tweeted, “It won’t happen.” I’d like to believe he’s right, but “It won’t happen” is exactly what everyone said about Trump becoming president. – James Corden

I’m no expert, but I’m pretty sure you can’t stop a nuclear missile by tweeting at it. – James Corden

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The New Normal?


© Tom Tomorrow

Is it possible that Trump is turning out to be worse than any of us expected?

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Polling is not dead yet!

In the wake of the presidential election, many people blamed the polls for being wrong about who would win. But were the polls really that far off? Nate Silver makes a very good case that they were not.

Silver’s case is based on two facts. First, that the election changed direction near the end, when James Comey sent his October surprise letter to Congress. Polls respond slowly to changes. Even worse, people, and especially the media, misinterpreted Clinton’s national lead in the popular vote as implying a win in the Electoral College. According to Silver, it wasn’t the polls that were at fault.

Why is this important? Because every time a poll says that people are unhappy with Trump, he is going to claim that the polls are rigged, “just like they were before the election”. He has already done this for polls that said that the majority of people were not happy with the way his transition was going.

Silver points out that polls about the popularity of Trump are easier to get right than polls about whether he would win the election, because (for example) election polls have to take into account who is going to actually show up to vote, which is notoriously difficult to predict.

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Voter Fraud, Lies, and Hypocrisy

Donald Trump seems obsessed with the fact that he lost the popular vote to Hillary Clinton. In particular he keeps claiming (including to Congressional leaders on Monday) that he would have won the popular vote but for millions of illegal votes cast by undocumented aliens, even though multiple investigations have found no evidence of voter fraud.

Wednesday, Trump doubled down, tweeting (in two consecutive tweets):

I will be asking for a major investigation into VOTER FRAUD, including those registered to vote in two states, those who are illegal and … even, those registered to vote who are dead (and many for a long time). Depending on results, we will strengthen up voting procedures!

It is very curious that Trump mentioned first “those registered to vote in two states”, because his top advisor Steve Bannon last year registered to vote in three different places (Dade and Sarasota counties in Florida, and Manhattan in New York City) in less than 3 months, and is still registered in both states. In addition, Trump’s daughter Tiffany is registered to vote in two states.

But it gets even crazier. After the presidential election, Trump’s own campaign blocked recount requests by Green Party candidate Jill Stein, saying in a court filing “All available evidence suggests that the 2016 general election was not tainted by fraud or mistake.”

So which is it? Because if Trump keeps claiming voter fraud, that may well open the door to further investigations into Russian meddling in the election. And unlike Trump’s claims, there is lots of evidence for that.

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