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Actual government spending has gone down

A recent PolitiFact article reminded me of an old saying attributed to Mark Twain: “Figures never lie, but liars figure”. The article rates the truthfulness of a statement by Mitt Romney during the Republican presidential debate last week, where he said that under president JFK “government took up” 27% of the economy, while today it “consumes 37%”. Technically, Romney is correct.

Well, close actually. The first year JFK was president, 1961, government spending as a percent of GDP was 27.4%, but the next year it was 27.8%, so closer to 28% than 27%. And Romney’s definition of “today” seems to be 2009, when government spending was 36.5% of GDP. In 2010 it was 35.0%. So it is equally true that spending went from 28% under JFK to 35% today, but a rise of 7% doesn’t sound quite as dire as a double digit 10% rise. Also note that by saying “today”, he is implying “under Obama”, but the 2009 fiscal year budget was approved under Bush, not Obama.

But to me the real lie is Romney’s fear-mongering conclusion: “We’re inches away from no longer having a free economy.” Oh no! Government spending is running wild and is threatening your freedom!

Bullshit.

The rise in government spending is almost entirely due to what are called “transfer payments” — programs like Social Security and Medicare. Indeed, Medicare didn’t even exist until 1965, so it accounts for a big share of the increase. And while Social Security is technically government spending, it is like an insurance program. You pay into Social Security all your life, and in return when you retire Social Security pays you something to live on. Note that your retirement payment is your money, and you can spend it on whatever you want. How is that not free?

If you leave out transfer payments, government spending actually decreased as a percentage of GDP, from 22.5% to 19.3%. Defense and international spending went down, from 9.8% in 1963 to 5.1% in 2010. Even interest payments, the scary boogeyman of the national debt, went down, from 1.5% in 1963 to 1.4% in 2010.

So what is Romney’s point? If the rise in Federal spending is threatening our freedom, then he should be proposing that we cut those programs that contributed directly to that rise, namely Medicare and Social Security. In order to reduce those programs to 1963 levels, he needs to eliminate 69% of their funding, and abolish Medicare completely. I wonder how popular that would be.

I think PolitiFact needs a new category — things that are technically true but are used to make conclusions that are completely misleading. They can call it “Liars Figure”.

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Late Night Political Humor

“Newsweek used a photo to make Michele Bachmann appear crazy. That’s what her words are for.” – Jon Stewart

“Michele Bachmann is on the cover of the latest issue of Newsweek. Did you see the picture? That’s when you know it’s bad, when even you look surprised you’re running for president.” – Jimmy Fallon

“I look at that picture and say, isn’t that a little soon to be doing a female re-make of the 40-Year-Old Virgin?” – Jon Stewart

“Newsweek is taking heat for calling Michele Bachmann ‘The Queen of Rage.’ Michele says, ‘There’s only one raging queen in our household, and it’s not me.'” – Conan O’Brien

“New reports say that President Obama’s re-election team is going to try to portray Mitt Romney as ‘weird.’ They’re also going to try to portray Michele Bachmann as ‘Michele Bachmann.'” – Conan O’Brien

“‘Rise of the Planet of the Apes’ made $54 million this weekend. It’s about small-brained creatures who rise up and take over the Earth. First they form political groups called Tea Parties.” – Jay Leno

“Our national credit rating was downgraded and it caused a nosedive on Wall Street. If I had any understanding of any of this, I’d be very nervous right now, but fortunately I don’t.” – Jimmy Kimmel

“The United States has been downgraded, and this is how bad it is: Even Greece won’t talk to us.” – Jay Leno

“The Dow fell 634 points and went below the 11,000 mark. All I can say is: It’s a good thing all my money is tied up in Beanie Babies.” – Jimmy Fallon

“After Monday’s 600-point drop, the stock market fell and got back up again six times the next day. The stock market is acting like me after two appletinis.” – Conan O’Brien

“Great day today! Obama didn’t speak. Congress didn’t act. Experts on vacation. And the Dow soared 400 points. There’s a lesson in there.” – Jay Leno

“There was a small fire today at President Obama’s vacation home in Martha’s Vineyard. Or as Obama told China, ‘Darn! That’s where I was keeping the $14 trillion I was about to give back! What are the odds?'” – Jimmy Fallon

“A 61-year-old woman ended her attempt to swim from Havana to Florida. She stopped when she realized how bad the American economy was, and started swimming in the other direction. – Jay Leno

“Been a tough year for the NY Yankees, lost all 4 series vs the Red Sox. So today S&P downgraded the Yankees to the Mets.” – Jimmy Fallon

“Rush Limbaugh accused President Obama of trying to inflict as much damage as possible in four years. And then Rush Limbaugh’s chair accused him of doing the same thing.” – Jimmy Fallon

“There have been major riots in London. Apparently they realized that this is the last ‘Harry Potter’ movie.” – Jimmy Kimmel

“Big riots in the United Kingdom. Do you know how you can tell the riots are in London? Because there they riot on the other side of the street.” – Jay Leno

“Donald Trump told CNN he may consider getting back into the presidential race. He said he has to mull it over, comb it over, and he’ll go from there.” – Jimmy Kimmel

“Arnold Schwarzenegger was seen wearing a t-shirt that said, ‘I Survived Maria.’ Maria Shriver was seen wearing a shirt that said, ‘I Survived ‘Twins.’ ‘End of Days’ and ‘Jingle All the Way.'” – Conan O’Brien

“Sarah Palin now has a second grandchild. Think how many she’d have if the Palins didn’t practice abstinence. The kid’s name is Grizzly Frances Moosehead Palin.” – Jimmy Kimmel

“Scientists have discovered that Texas and Antarctica were once linked. They say their first clue was when they were shot at by penguins.” – Conan O’Brien

“A new study shows that Americans with Type 2 diabetes can completely reverse the disease by eating healthy foods. In other words, no cure for Type 2 diabetes.” – Conan O’Brien

“Al Gore got so angry during a speech about global warming that he almost woke up some of the people in the audience.” – Jimmy Kimmel

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Superman vs The Tea Party?

This comic is from June 1952. I guess the Tea Party has been around for a while.

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Stop Coddling the Super-Rich

How can anyone call it class warfare when the case against the rich is being argued by one of the richest men in the world? Warren Buffett is one of the most successful investors ever, and yet he makes an iron-clad case that the US is coddling the super-rich. Buffett points out that he pays a smaller percentage of his income (17.4%) than all of the people who work in his office (average 36%). That’s right, his tax rate is less than half of rate people working for him pay. He adds that some of his super-rich friends pay even less.

Why? Because if you make money from investments, you pay 15% on most of your earnings. Not only that, but payroll taxes (which support social security) are capped, so the rich pay a minuscule percentage of their income on that.

But my favorite part of his article is where he explodes the myth that low taxes encourages investment. As he puts it:

I have worked with investors for 60 years and I have yet to see anyone — not even when capital gains rates were 39.9 percent in 1976-77 — shy away from a sensible investment because of the tax rate on the potential gain. People invest to make money, and potential taxes have never scared them off. And to those who argue that higher rates hurt job creation, I would note that a net of nearly 40 million jobs were added between 1980 and 2000. You know what’s happened since then: lower tax rates and far lower job creation.

So who are Republicans trying to protect when they refuse to raise taxes on the super-wealthy? They sure aren’t trying to create jobs.

Buffett concludes “My friends and I have been coddled long enough by a billionaire-friendly Congress. It’s time for our government to get serious about shared sacrifice.”

UPDATE: Obama agrees with Buffett on taxes.

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Looting


© Pat Bagley

There have been quite a few comics recently about the riots in England. On one side, the rioters are declared to be low-life criminal scum. On the other side, the rioters are reacting to the destruction of their jobs and way of life by the bankers. Are both views correct?

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Where are the jobs?


© Jim Morin

Have the Republicans actually done anything at all to create jobs? Well, other than their very tired and utterly refuted refrain that cutting taxes will fix our economy and increase jobs?

After all, if cutting taxes leads to job creation, then the end of Dubya’s presidency should have seen employment increasing instead of cratering. And between 1945 and 1964 — when taxes on income over $200,000 was over 90% — should have been a great depression (in case you can’t remember, it wasn’t).

Can anyone name one other thing the Republicans are proposing to put people back to work? Will they end subsidies for sending jobs to other countries? All I hear them promise is to repeal health care reform, end abortion, and “protect marriage”. How is that going to create jobs?

In fact, reducing the deficit, which appears to be the highest priority now that we don’t have a Republican president, seems certain to result in higher unemployment.

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Late Night Political Humor

“The United States’ credit rating was downgraded to AA+. Am I the only one who thinks that doesn’t sound so bad?” – Jimmy Kimmel

“Standard & Poor’s has lowered our credit rating to AA+, which means no one will lend us money or go to 2nd base with us.” – Conan O’Brien

“S&P downgraded the United States from AAA to AA+, and it gets worse. Today, Italy, England, and Greece un-friended us on Facebook.” – Jay Leno

“S&P makes a $2 trillion mistake. Or as it’s known in financial circles, a ‘Trump’.” – Daily Show tweet

“By the way, the ratings agency is Standard & Poor’s. Who’s going to listen to a company whose name translates to Average & Below Average?” – Jon Stewart

“President Obama said that even though we’ve been downgraded, we’re still a AAA nation. Unfortunately, he meant in the minor league baseball sense.” – Jimmy Kimmel

“Standard and Poor’s has also warned there’s a 1 in 3 chance we could be downgraded again in the next three years. We could go from AA+ to F.U. That’s how bad it’s gotten.” – Jay Leno

“Man, America’s credit rating took a real hit this weekend. On Friday night, the U.S. actually lost its AAA status. Or as Joe Biden put it, ‘What happens if I get a flat tire?'” – Jimmy Fallon

“Standard & Poor’s has downgraded us from AAA to AA+. We have to take a note home and have our parents sign it. Don’t pull anything out of the stock market until 12:45 tomorrow. By then I should be over international waters.” – Stephen Colbert

“Wall Street got so hammered today Ronnie and The Situation tried to have sex with it.” – Jimmy Kimmel

“The good news is, the stock market is closed and it can’t hurt us again until tomorrow.” – Jay Leno

“We owe China more than a trillion dollars. Why don’t we just give them Florida?” – Jimmy Kimmel

“China has told us our days of squandering borrowed money are over. So maybe we shouldn’t tell them we just spent $76 million going to the Smurf movie.” – Conan O’Brien

“If the Lord can turn water into wine, surely he can turn debt into wine – which is good, because we’re gonna need a drink.” – Stephen Colbert

“The economy’s so bad Angelina Jolie is now adopting kids from America. My Facebook friends are now eating their Farmville animals. Piers Morgan can only afford to hack into the voicemail of Ringo.” – Conan O’Brien

“We’ve always been told our kids and grandkids are going to have to pay for our reckless spending. Now WE have to pay?!” – Jimmy Kimmel

“It turns out that Texas Gov. Rick Perry got a D in Principles of Economics. So he can’t be president, but he can get a job on President Obama’s economic team.” – Jay Leno

“Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner announced he’s not going to resign. He had suggested he might be leaving and getting a job in the private sector. But thanks to his economic policies there are no jobs in the private sector, so I guess he’s going to stay.” – Jay Leno

“I don’t know why Timothy Geithner would quit working at the Treasury. It must be an easy job now, especially since there’s no money in it.” – Jay Leno

“About 45,000 Verizon employees are on strike after failing to reach a new contract. Yeah, things are so bad, the S&P downgraded them from ‘Verizon’ to ‘AT&T.'” – Jimmy Fallon

“A new poll shows that disapproval of Congress is at an all-time high. Eighty-two percent of Americans disapprove of the job Congress is doing and the other 18 percent weren’t home when the question was asked.” – Jimmy Kimmel

“Only a couple of days until the big Republican Iowa Republican straw poll. Pollsters say it’s a dead heat between the guy you never heard of, the guy who used to be somebody, and the woman who has no chance of winning.” – Jay Leno

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Congressional Rating


© Ed Stein

Polls show that Congressional approval is now even lower than back before the last election, when Congressional approval was so low we kicked out a bunch of Congress and elected some newbie freshmen from the Tea Party. Ouch! Ever get the feeling that you’ve been had?

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So, You Hate The Debt Ceiling Deal?

For those of you who still think Obama sold out by compromising with the Republicans (or worse, that he is a Republican), that the politics we are seeing in Washington is not the way our founding fathers intended for our country to function and marks the doom of our democracy. Well, you should read this excellent article written by Jim Wright over at Stonekettle Station.

As Benjamin Franklin often said, democracy is hard, dirty, and sometimes very ugly.

Did you know that Patrick Henry stayed away from the constitutional convention because he was convinced that the other founders were conspiring to create a new monarchy? Or that Rhode Island wanted nothing to do with a new federal government, and so didn’t even bother to send any delegates to the convention? Most people know about the great tug-of-war over slavery, which ended with a great compromise that counted slaves as less than human.

The discussions over our constitution were fierce, involved lots of shouting, and occasionally fist fights broke out. In the end, almost one third of the delegates refused to sign the resulting constitution; they disliked it that much. Thirteen of the delegates even walked out rather than be there for the final ceremony because they considered it a failure. And afterwards, the founders had to patch up the constitution by adding 10 amendments to it (now known as the Bill of Rights) even before the original document was signed.

In the end, Franklin summed it up:

There are several parts of this Constitution which I do not at present approve, but I am not sure I shall never approve them. I doubt too whether any other Convention we can obtain may be able to make a better Constitution.

That’s right, it was compromise. Dirty stinking compromise. Love it or not, that’s how our government works. You think the Tea Party is crazy? Think about the fights over slavery, which ended up in bloody civil war. If we survived that, surely we can survive supply side economics.

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More Mystery Corporations

Earlier this week this blog reported on a mystery corporation that was created, donated a million dollars to help elect Mitt Romney, and then dissolved — all done to keep the donor’s identity secret. That story was somewhat defused when the actual donor decided to reveal himself.

But now we find that there are at least two other mystery companies that did the same thing. Two companies ostensibly located in Provo, Utah each donated a million dollars (coincidentally on the same day), yet neither corporation appears to do anything other than make political donations and their reported address is an accounting firm whose employees weren’t aware of either companies’ activities.

So how common is this practice? We now know that at least $3 million of the $12 million raised by Restore Our Future (the Super-PAC whose sole aim is to elect Romney) came from mystery corporations. I would not be surprised to find out that more than half the money that will be spent in the upcoming 2012 elections will come from secret donors. And there will be no way to know if foreigners are using this trick to influence US elections.

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Fox News Tells You Everything You Need to Know about Entitlements

More brilliance from Jon Stewart:

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Late Night Political Humor

“We finally got a debt deal. It’s a jobs killer. It’ll bring back the recession. It didn’t do anything to fix the entitlements. The only bright spot was that Gabrielle Giffords came back to Congress to vote. And she must have been thinking, ‘I got shot in the head for this?'” – Bill Maher

“In the movie ‘Rise of the Planet of the Apes,’ not only do the apes take over, but they actually do a better job with the debt crisis than humans.” – Jay Leno

“John Boehner bragged that he got 98% of what he wanted from Obama in the deal. So contrary to popular belief, black does crack.” – Bill Maher

“There are consequences to voting for economic terrorists. There’s a rumor that Joe Biden called the Republicans terrorists this week. And they were furious about this. They were so upset about being called terrorists, they went out and took the FAA hostage.” – Bill Maher

“The only way they’re going to pull the debate back from the far right is for liberals to elect their own slate of 60 unstable, looney-toon, mad-as-a-hatter, crazy motherfuckers.” – Bill Maher

“So please liberals start trolling Whole Foods parking lots, nude beaches, erotic cake stores, the MSNBC commissary. Anywhere where you might find angry left-wing lunatics to create a party within a party, as the Tea Party is a party within the Republicans, and to show that we will not back down in a crazy-off against anybody. The party within a party will be called the Donner Party.” – Bill Maher

“That’s right, we will literally eat each other before we give an inch, and this is our leader, Face Ripper Monkey… And don’t tell me that there already is such an entity on the left, that it’s the ACLU, Greenpeace and MoveOn.org. Oh please, those are educated people lawyers and scientists. We need loudmouths and bad dressers who can match the tea people maniac for maniac, and say to them you think you can be pea brained, single minded, and purple with rage?” – Bill Maher

“Well, the Donner Party is a dog that can bark at a pine cone for nine days and not get tired. You say no new taxes on the rich. We say tax the rich at 100%. You call for a constitutional amendment banning abortion. We call for a federally funded partial birth abortions at the drive-thru at McDonalds. You want Reagan on the fifty dollar bill. We insist on Jeanine Garofalo, because apparently crazy is the new sensible and will not lose the war of bad ideas.” – Bill Maher

“The Dow went down 500 points. Standard & Poor’s downgraded us. Moody’s turned us from AAA to WTF.” – Bill Maher

“I have some bad news for the Chinese; that money we were going to pay you back with, turns out we had it in the stock market. Tough break.” – Jay Leno

“I don’t want to say the economy is worrisome, but I turned on CNN and MSNBC and the blond anchor lady was just sitting there eating a pint of ice cream.” – Bill Maher

“Some good news; after one of the worst weeks in 30 years the market slightly recovered today. Up 60 points! Sixty points! In fact, economists say if we can do that every day for the next 200 years we’ll be back to where we were last week. So that’s fantastic.” – Jay Leno

“Man, it’s been a tough time for the economy, but this week, President Obama declared that quote ‘things will get better.’ Yep, and then he opened his eyes, and blew out the candles on his birthday cake.” – Jimmy Fallon

“Yesterday Barack Obama had a birthday. Or as Republicans call it, Kwanzaa. I don’t know how much you know about Barack Obama, but he was briefly president of the United States, and yesterday he turned 50, although if Republicans insist, he is willing to be 52.” – Bill Maher

“Later this month President Obama will embark on a bus tour through the Midwest that will focus on jobs. Mainly him trying to keep his.” – Jay Leno

“Think how far Obama has come. Not long ago, a lot of people in this country thought he was a secret Kenyan, or a secret Muslim. Now we know he’s a secret Republican.” – Bill Maher

“A new study found that presidents age two times faster than normal people while they’re in office. Or as John McCain put it, ‘Whew — good thing I lost!'” – Jimmy Fallon

“Congress has the lowest approval rating ever. 82 percent of the American people say Congress sucks. But to be fair, these are the same idiots who voted these people in, so they can go suck it as far as I’m concerned.” – Bill Maher

“On this day in 1861, the federal income tax went into effect. Actually, what happened was, back in those days there were lots of armed robbers and thieves, so the government rounded them all up – thus forming I.R.S. as we know it today.” – Jay Leno

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Stock Market – Child’s Play?

This should be the new ad for E-Trade, after the last few days of the stock market:

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Perry Lunges; Colbert Parries

Stephen Colbert’s Super PAC’s first ad:

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Debtpocalypse, the Sequel?


© Tom Tomorrow

I guess the big question is, do you think Obama compromised too easily? Or did he do what he needed to do to save the country from defaulting? Although I have some sympathy for the former position, which is fairly popular with pundits (including Tom Tomorrow), I have to ask them, what would you have had Obama do differently, and what would have been the outcome? Is the answer they are proposing total stalemate and chaos?

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